On April 7, President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran were “very far along” and suggested that only two weeks remained before an agreement could be finalized. Months later, after billions of dollars in military expenditures and extensive diplomatic efforts, the resulting framework appears, in many respects, not substantially different from the agreement negotiated by the Obama Administration years earlier. This has led many observers to ask whether the cost and effort were ultimately justified—raising the familiar question: Was the juice worth the squeeze?

The prolonged negotiations and uncertain outcome have also weighed on public sentiment, with recent polling showing President Trump’s approval ratings, as of June 17^th, at 57.8% disapprove, 38.8% approve.  This dark cloud is expected to have a significant impact on the midterm elections and, therefore, a possible swing in policy. 

One noteworthy development has been the opportunity for the United Arab Emirates to pursue greater independence from the OPEC oil cartel. At the same time, improving relations between Venezuela and the United States, combined with America’s position as one of the world’s largest oil producers, has helped mitigate oil challenges outside the Middle East.

Despite widespread predictions that oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel, those forecasts have not materialized. Brent crude briefly climbed to approximately $126 per barrel before retreating to around $75. In our view, many analysts underestimated factors such as China’s reduction in oil imports and the market’s reaction to ongoing negotiations and policy announcements. While current prices have moderated, we remain cautious about the durability of any long-term peace agreement and continue to evaluate hedging strategies designed to mitigate geopolitical risk.

We also welcome new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who begins his tenure amid a challenging economic backdrop. Although he has often been viewed as relatively dovish by market participants, his leadership coincides with inflationary pressures that remain above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target.

At the same time, Treasury financing decisions continue to warrant attention. Like his predecessor, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has relied heavily on short-term Treasury bills to finance government borrowing. While this approach can provide flexibility, it also shortens the average maturity of U.S. debt and may increase refinancing needs and interest expense if elevated rates persist.

The primary engine behind recent equity market gains has continued to be the technology sector, particularly companies benefiting from advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and related infrastructure. Investor enthusiasm has pushed valuation